Written by Brett Korpi
At first blush, the Big Ten Championship at Lucas Oil Stadium seems like an afterthought on championship weekend as both teams are on the outside of the Top 4 looking in. However, that doesn’t mean there isn’t a lot on the line for both schools.
East Division champion Ohio State (11-1, 8-1 Big Ten) ranked No. 6 in the latest CFP rankings, can make a strong case that they belong in the Top 4 with a convincing victory. While, West Division champion Northwestern (8-4, 8-1) seeks their first Big Ten Championship since 2000, and to earn a spot in the Rose Bowl.
How They Got Here:
It has been an emotional roller coaster of a season for the Buckeyes, who were without head coach Urban Meyer for the first three games of the season due to a suspension for his part in the handling of former wide receivers coach Zach Smith, who was accused of domestic-violence. Interim head coach Ryan Day held down the fort in Columbus, leading Ohio State to a 3-0 record including a 40-28 victory over No. 15 TCU.
Upon his return,Meyer had to deal with more adversity with defensive leader Nick Bosa going down with a injury that would later end his career at Ohio State when he announced he would focus on preparing himself for the NFL Draft. Despite the crucial loss of Bosa, Meyer, led his team to four more wins, with a 27-26 last second victory over at the time No.9 Penn State. However, the roller coaster took a dip with a dreadful 49-20 loss at Purdue on Oct. 20. The Buckeyes would get back to their winning ways, but would struggle against teams in the bottom of the standings with close calls against Nebraska (36-31) and Maryland (52-51). Ohio State saw themselves fall in the rankings to No. 10. However, the Buckeyes looked like a playoff contender in their 62-39 dismantling of their bitter rival, No.4 Michigan, and claiming the Big Ten East Division.
Northwestern started off the season with a divisional victory against Purdue, but would suffer three straight losses to Duke, Akron, and Michigan. They would quickly rebound with victories over Nebraska, Rutgers, and Wisconsin. No.3 Norte Dame would end the win streak. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald’s squad rattled off the divisional wins against Iowa, Minnesota, and rival Illinois to end the season undefeated in the West Division and 8-1 in the conference overall. Having lost their three non-conference games, The Wildcats are the first team to win a division title while going winless outside their conference.
Ohio State Offense vs. Northwestern Defense:
On paper this looks like a total mismatch with a Buckeyes squad that is ranked second in total offense and seventh in scoring nationally, while being led by a record-setting Heisman candidate in Dwayne Haskins. The Wildcats defense that is tasked with keeping Hastings in check has taken a bend but don’t break approach ranking 48th nationally in total defense and 29th in points allowed. Northwestern is led by LB Blake Gallagher who leads the conference with 112 tackles, including 6.5 for loss.
In just his first year as a starter at Ohio State, Haskins has taken Columbus and the Big Ten by storm by breaking too many school and conference records to list. The red-shirt sophomore has been named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, The Chicago Tribune’s Silver Football Award, and is expected to be named a Heisman finalist next week, after posting a season a in which he threw for 4,081 yards and 42 touchdowns while throwing just seven interceptions. Northwestern’s Fitzgerald knows his defense will be trying to stop a special player.
“What jumps out is poise, accuracy. Unbelievable understanding of what Coach Day and Coach Wilson are asking him to do with the offense. The touchdown- to-turnover ratio is maybe unheard of in this league’s history. He’s a complete player.”
The Wildcats are a disciplined defense having been penalized the least in the country, and hold opponents to just 21 points per game, however they haven’t faced an offense as fast and balanced as Ohio State. Aside from Haskins the Buckeyes have a rushing attack that averages 181 yards led by J.K. Dobbins’ 961 yards and 8 touchdowns. Through the air Haskins’ top target is Paris Campbell who has hauled in 72 receptions for 903 yards and 11 TD.
Meyer knows speed is key for his offense and what separates them from the pack.
“We have some fast guys. It’s no secret that that’s one of our principles of offensive football, is get fast in space. That will be part of it tomorrow.” Meyer would add that Northwestern is more that capable of countering the Buckeye speed, “We’re playing a team that also believes in not allowing that to happen. I mean, that’s about countless hours trying to figure out how to do that because they don’t give up many big hits. You look at statistics, they just don’t do that.”
Northwestern Offense vs. Ohio State Defense:
The Wildcats offense shares a similar storyline with the Buckeye unit opposing them. Both lost major contributors and struggled until their replacements made strides. It makes for an interesting matchup and could be the key to the game especially if Northwestern makes a push late for an upset.
We mentioned OSU’s loss of Bosa earlier, while the Wildcats lost senior running back Jeremy Lark in the fourth game of the season. After throwing everything at the wall trying to find a productive back, true-freshman Isaiah Bowser broke-through in the final six games of the season rushing for 734 yards and six touchdowns.
“To the whole room’s credit, all the guys competed, tried to fill in the role to the best of their ability. To Isaiah’s credit, he took it over. I think the Rutgers start really gave him a lot of confidence. I think he’s moved forward each week getting stronger and stronger.” Fitzgerald said of the situation.
Northwestern’s offense is not a one player show, the also have a record-setting quarterback in Clayton Thorson. The senior is the only QB in Big Ten history to throw for over 10,000 yards and rush for 20 touchdowns. If the dual-threat sees success on the ground and through the air watch out for the upset because the Wildcats are 7-0 this season when Thorson throws for at least two touchdowns and rushes for another.
Looking to to keep Thorson contained is a unit that has struggled at times this season, but has also showed flashes of brilliance. The Buckeyes have unquestionable talent but the key has been trying to get the unit to play together as they have had to plug in new faces. Ohio State lost seven starters from last years defense (eight if you count Bosa) and have had 12 different players start for the first time this season. The inexperience and injuries have accounted for a down year for a unit that was expected to strength heading into the season. The Buckeyes are 67th nationally in total defense and 56th in scoring defense. Though they have had their struggles Ohio State is not without stars. Dre’mont Jones has stepped up as the top pass rusher with 7.5 sacks and 12 tackles-for-loss. The big man also has two defensive scores. Linebacker Malik Harrison is the top tackler with 64.
For Meyer, it will be key for the Buckeyes to keep Northwestern’s offense of the field, “The matchup to me is going to be field position in this game. Most championship games it is.”
Prediction:
I expect Northwestern’s discipline to keep them in the game early, but the Ohio State’s speed and talent to will be too much late as the Buckeyes pull away in the fourth quarter for a 38-17 victory covering the 14-point spread.
The Big Ten Championship kicks off from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN at 8:17 p.m. Saturday Dec. 1st on FOX.
