The final weekend of the long NASCAR season is upon us and the championship field has been narrowed down to the final four drivers: Martin Truex, Jr., Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick. Undoubtedly, this Championship Four field is comprised of the four best drivers of the season and, perhaps, the strongest field ever.
Of the four eligible drivers, only Harvick is not employed by Joe Gibbs Racing. JGR previously had two drivers qualify for the championship race in 2016 when Busch and Carl Edwards were in contention. This is the first time one organization has had more than two drivers in the Championship Four.
This feat is historic, yet potentially problematic. JGR is renowned for its data-sharing and its “open notebook” policy. The jury is out whether the three Gibbs teams will continue this paradigm or if it will be every man for himself. Regardless, JGR has shown the best speed all year and will be tough to beat with three chances at the title.
Championship Four Driver Breakdown
Martin Truex, Jr. advanced to the championship round by virtue of his win at Martinsville Speedway at the start of the Round of 8. The 2017 champion returns to Homestead with an opportunity to secure his second title in three years. Truex has a series-best seven wins on the season which is the second-most he has ever had in a year. He can tie his career-best season wins mark on Sunday with an eighth victory. With ample time to prepare due to the aforementioned win at Martinsville, Cole Pearn will have undoubtedly “dotted his I’s and crossed his T’s” and Truex can be assured he will have a car capable of securing the championship.
Truex at Homestead: 1 win, 5 top-fives, 9 top-tens, 10.8 average finish in 14 starts.
Kevin Harvick secured his spot in the final round in Fort Worth two weeks ago with a win at Texas Motor Speedway. Harvick can take solace in the fact that he won the most recent race held at a 1.5-mile track, which is the same length as Homestead-Miami Speedway. Unlike his competitors, Harvick’s Ford Mustang will have had the attention of every employee in the Stewart-Haas Racing facility for the last two weeks due to being the only remaining playoff driver from the organization. He sports a series-best 6.6 average finish at Homestead and won the championship in the first year of this elimination-style format five years ago.
Harvick at Homestead: 1 win, 10 top-fives, 16 top-tens, 6.6 average finish in 18 starts.
Denny Hamlin dominated last week at Phoenix in walk-off fashion to advance to the sport’s championship round. Hamlin’s clutch victory in the desert exemplifies a “new and improved” Hamlin that we have seen throughout the 2019 campaign. Spearheaded by new crew chief Chris Gabehart, Hamlin has the second-most victories he has had in a season with six and a career-best 23 top-fives this season. Hamlin is the only multiple-time winner at Homestead in the past ten years and has qualified on pole in three of the past four years in South Florida. Hamlin seems relaxed ahead of his first Championship Four appearance since the first year of the elimination format in 2014. Hamlin, 38, has had peaks and valleys in his 15-year career, nevertheless, he has proven capable of winning on the sports biggest stage. He will look to prove that on Sunday by winning his first career championship.
Hamlin at Homestead: 2 wins, 4 top-fives, 9 top-tens, 10.6 average finish in 14 starts.
Kyle Busch was the only driver in the Championship Four to qualify for the final round on points. His early-season success was parlayed into a regular-season championship and 15 valuable playoff points. Busch’s playoff performances have been hit or miss to this point. Despite having five top-tens in the playoffs, he also has four finishes of 14th or worse. He has worked to build positive momentum with a seventh-place finish at Texas and was runner-up last weekend at Phoenix. Busch has flown under the radar (as much as a driver of Kyle Busch’s stature can) and it remains to be seen how Busch will embrace the role of underdog. Busch won the 2015 championship in his first-year with crew chief Adam Stevens. They will look to secure their second championship together.
Busch at Homestead: 1 win, 4 top-fives, 7 top-tens, 17.4 average finish in 14 starts.
Prediction: While Joe Gibbs Racing has shown elite speed since the start of the season, Stewart-Haas Racing took some time to get into championship form, Kevin Harvick and crew chief Rodney Childers had the attention of the entire Stewart-Haas shop since his teammates were eliminated following the Round of 12. The three JGR drivers potentially have to face the internal politics of data/information sharing and that could complicate their championship chase.
For these reasons in addition to Harvick’s incredible 6.6 average finish at Homestead, I believe Kevin Harvick will be the man to beat on Sunday, however, this championship will go down to the wire between all three drivers and I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of them win.
Written by Greg Atkins
